WRITING
Notes on markets, and on measuring them.
Half of this is what we found in the data. The other half is how we decided what counts as a finding, which is the harder problem.
Methodology · Latest
Why we stopped scoring confidence by magnitude
A signal that moves 200% on one source is weaker than one that moves 20% across five. We had this backwards for six months, and the fix moved some historical scores down.
Amara's note · 18 Sept 2026 · 2 min read
Read the postResearch
Lagos and Accra are not the same market on a delay
We assumed a six-week lag and entered Accra early. The real figure is closer to ten, and travel does not follow the pattern at all.
Coming soon 28 Sept 2026Research
Detty December, measured
Four years of event capacity, flight seats, shortlet rates and restaurant openings, and what the shape actually looks like when you line them up.
Coming soon 14 Sept 2026-
Product
An empty dashboard is an honest dashboard
Every product in this category could show you a chart on day one. It would be made up. Here is what we show instead.
2 Sept 2026 1 min read -
Product
Counter-signals, or why we show you the argument against
A brief that only supports its own conclusion is marketing. We made counter-signals mandatory and some briefs got noticeably weaker.
21 Aug 2026 1 min read
Get these when they go out.
Roughly twice a month. No product announcements — those live in the changelog.
Earlier writing from version 1 17
Why We Track Signals Before Execution, Not After
26 May 2026 · 6 min read
Decision Playbooks — Pre-Built Intelligence Workflows for Moves You Make Every Quarter
24 May 2026 · 5 min read
From 14 Open Tabs to One Briefing — How Teams Cut Decision Latency
23 May 2026 · 6 min read
Signal Credits — Why We Built Usage That Rolls Over Instead of Expires
22 May 2026 · 5 min read
Synthetic Audiences — Test Your Message Before Real People See It
21 May 2026 · 5 min read
Decision Logger — The Only Way to Know If Your Strategy Actually Worked
19 May 2026 · 6 min read
What Is a Breakpoint Alert — and Why It’s Not the Same as an Analytics Alert
16 May 2026 · 6 min read
Morning Briefing vs Notification Overload — Why Timing and Synthesis Matter
14 May 2026 · 5 min read
Your Dashboard Shows Revenue Dropped 12%. Now What?
12 May 2026 · 6 min read
Stop Publishing Blind — How Signal Intelligence Ends the Content Guessing Game
10 May 2026 · 6 min read
The Only Way to Actually Know If Your Strategy Worked
3 May 2026 · 5 min read
Test Your Message With a Synthetic Audience Before Anyone Sees It
26 Apr 2026 · 6 min read
How Risk Probability Scores Change the Way You Decide
19 Apr 2026 · 5 min read
Morning Briefings Beat Dashboards — Here’s Why
12 Apr 2026 · 5 min read
Decision Intelligence vs Analytics — What’s the Difference?
5 Apr 2026 · 6 min read
How to Read Competitor Signals Before They Become Obvious
28 Mar 2026 · 5 min read
Why Content Timing Matters More Than Content Quality
14 Mar 2026 · 6 min read
Read the evidence on your own markets.
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